Predictions made by a recognized climatologist on North American climate patterns over several decades include western droughts and wildfires, and lowered Great Lakes water levels, with effects on economy (and recreation for canoeing here).
For the Great Lakes, a 50-60 year climate cycle corelates with rising and falling levels, in addition to any effects of climate change. The low water in Lake Huron and Georgian Bay today was matched by low water during the fifties... if this cycle repeats, then another twenty years of low water are predicted before lake levels start rising again.
The New Normal — Some Expensive Consequences
Excerpted from The Browning Newsletter, August 2013, Vol. 38, No. 8
SUMMARY
From the Western wildfires to the Great Lakes, from insurance to transportation, real estate values, and fuel, the "New Normal" is having a major negative impact on certain sectors of the North American economy.
Long-term planning, using 20+ years of data, is biased towards climate conditions that no longer exist. If long-term planners look at 60-80 years of climate data, they should make different and better decisions.
Climate change is affecting the bottom line. The changes in two long-term trends are raising costs and cutting profits for a number of industries. As long as each bad year is accepted as a one-off, rather than the New Normal, these "unexpected" losses will continue.
• THE ATLANTIC – The waters in the Gulf Stream are flowing faster, carrying more hot tropical waters along US shores.
• THE PACIFIC – The Pacific has a 50-60 year cycle, called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), that shifts warmer waters through the Northern Pacific. Starting in 1999 and tipping in 2006, the PDO has shifted cooler waters to US shores. Although occasionally interrupted by a warm El Niño, this creates drier Western weather.
...
Great Lakes Water Levels
The Western US is not the only region with low lake levels. Lakes Michigan and Huron set new record-low water levels last December, while the other Great Lakes dropped as well. Although some of this is due to the low snowfall levels of the winter of 2011/2012, the real problem is that the lakes have endured 14 years of below-average levels.
For the last 14 years, Great Lakes water levels have been severely reduced since 1999. This historically correlates to the negative PDO.
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/now/wlevels/levels.htmlThere is no scientific literature that ties the lower Great Lakes levels to the negative PDO, but the two correlate historically. If the negative PDO is a large factor in reducing water levels, then these lower levels will continue another 20 years.
The economic impact of these falling levels is hard to overstate. The lower levels pose economic threats to numerous industries that rely on the lakes' water supply, including, shipping, electric, (especially hydroelectric) power generation, tourism, and recreational boating.
Both US and Canadian industries that rely on bulk materials such as iron ore, coal, limestone, and salt are hugely dependent on lake travel. Lakers move products at prices that beat rail or road by as much as $20 per ton of cargo. Lower lake levels, however, force ships to lighten their loads, making hauling less efficient. It is estimated, for example, that a large laker, 1,000 feet long, would ship 324,000 fewer tons per season for each inch lost from Great Lake levels.
The lower Great Lakes levels, combined with hotter summer temperatures, have had serious impacts on energy production. The cost of shipping coal has increased, and a recent Department of Energy study reports that multiple Midwestern electrical plants have been affected. Oil, coal, gas, and nuclear generators that depend on the lakes' waters for cooling have seen lower water levels and higher temperatures affect their efficiency, which in turn has raised the cost of electricity to consumers.
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